DaRon Bland
DB, Fresno St. · 2022 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #167 (DAL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
The 2022 class is only 4 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #169 (#20 at his position), close to where he went (#167). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Fresno St.: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Combine
No NFL Combine invite on record (nflverse combine data), so teams had less verified testing on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 49% of the time (905 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 53 of ~68 possible regular-season games from 2022 through 2025 (~78%). Plus 6 games so far in 2026.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 59 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 2 |
| Pro Bowls | 1 |
| First-team All-Pro | 1 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 21 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 2.7 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 23.7 |
| Defense | 183 tackles, 0 sacks, 15 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2022 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2022 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Combine No Combine invite | 49.0% n=905 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #169 overall (#20 DB) |
Picked around him 2022 redraft
| 164 | Kyren Williams | redraft #14 |
| 165 | Esezi Otomewo | redraft #210 |
| 166 | Tycen Anderson | redraft #190 |
| 168 | Braxton Jones | redraft #65 |
| 169 | Ty Chandler | redraft #145 |
| 170 | Teagan Quitoriano | redraft #212 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.