Ty Chandler
RB, North Carolina · 2022 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #169 (MIN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings. Details below.
The 2022 class is only 4 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #132 overall (#8 at his position), but he lasted until pick #169: teams let him slide 37 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
North Carolina: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.38 40-yard dash at 204 lbs: faster than 92% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 40 of ~68 possible regular-season games from 2022 through 2025 (~59%).
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 40 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 6 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 6.0 |
| Rushing | 181 att, 710 yds, 3 TD |
| Receiving | 30 rec, 212 yds, undefined TD |
| Defense | 3 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2025 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2022 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2022 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 11", 204 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.38 s |
| Vertical | 31" |
| Broad jump | 121" |
| Arm / hand | 32.13" / 8.63" |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #132 overall (#8 RB) |
Picked around him 2022 redraft
| 166 | Tycen Anderson | redraft #190 |
| 167 | DaRon Bland | redraft #43 |
| 168 | Braxton Jones | redraft #65 |
| 170 | Teagan Quitoriano | redraft #212 |
| 171 | Luke Wattenberg | redraft #84 |
| 172 | Samuel Womack | redraft #141 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.