Luke Wattenberg
OL, Washington · 2022 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #171 (DEN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: position. Details below.
The 2022 class is only 4 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Position
OL (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #279 (#10 at his position); he went #171, 108 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Washington: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.20 40-yard dash at 299 lbs: faster than 53% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 51 of ~68 possible regular-season games from 2022 through 2025 (~75%). Plus 7 games so far in 2026.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 58 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 2 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 12 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 3.1 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 15.1 |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2022 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2022 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 299 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.20 s |
| Vertical | 29.5" |
| Broad jump | 113" |
| 3-cone | 7.45 s |
| Shuttle | 4.57 s |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #279 overall (#10 OL) |
Picked around him 2022 redraft
| 168 | Braxton Jones | redraft #65 |
| 169 | Ty Chandler | redraft #145 |
| 170 | Teagan Quitoriano | redraft #212 |
| 172 | Samuel Womack | redraft #141 |
| 173 | Marcus McKethan | redraft #200 |
| 174 | Dominique Robinson | redraft #143 |
More offensive line steals Steals & busts
| 2022 | Rasheed Walker #249 → #16 | +192 |
| 2004 | Scott Wells #251 → #14 | +189 |
| 2002 | Kyle Kosier #248 → #21 | +186 |
| 2021 | Trey Smith #226 → #14 | +186 |
| 2012 | Kelvin Beachum #248 → #19 | +183 |
Biggest steals at his position, 2000–2023 classes, current redraft rank.
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.