Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR, USC · 2021 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #112 (DET)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 82 of ~85 possible regular-season games from 2021 through 2025 (~96%). Plus 6 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #133 (#21 at his position), close to where he went (#112). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
USC: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.51 40-yard dash at 197 lbs: faster than 33% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 88 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 4 |
| Pro Bowls | 4 |
| First-team All-Pro | 2 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 57 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 2.3 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 59.3 |
| Passing | 1/1, 7 yds, 1 TD, undefined INT |
| Rushing | 25 att, 195 yds, 1 TD |
| Receiving | 584 rec, 6,624 yds, 49 TD |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2021 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2021 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 11", 197 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.51 s |
| Bench press | 20 reps |
| Vertical | 38.5" |
| Broad jump | 127" |
| 3-cone | 6.88 s |
| Shuttle | 4.17 s |
| Arm / hand | 30.38" / 9.13" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #133 overall (#21 WR) |
Picked around him 2021 redraft
| 109 | Dez Fitzpatrick | redraft #224 |
| 110 | James Hudson | redraft #114 |
| 111 | Cameron Sample | redraft #128 |
| 113 | Derrick Barnes | redraft #65 |
| 114 | Drew Dalman | redraft #46 |
| 115 | Jabril Cox | redraft #169 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.