Brock Purdy
QB, Iowa St. · 2022 NFL Draft, Round 7, pick #262 (SFO)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
The 2022 class is only 4 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #361 (#14 at his position); he went #262, 99 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Iowa St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.84 40-yard dash at 212 lbs: faster than 38% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 48 of ~68 possible regular-season games from 2022 through 2025 (~71%). Plus 7 games so far in 2026.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 55 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 3 |
| Pro Bowls | 1 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 44 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 3.1 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 47.1 |
| Passing | 1038/1524, 13,145 yds, 98 TD, 39 INT |
| Rushing | 190 att, 783 yds, 12 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2022 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2022 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 212 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.84 s |
| Vertical | 27" |
| 3-cone | 7.21 s |
| Shuttle | 4.45 s |
| Arm / hand | 28.63" / 9.5" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #361 overall (#14 QB) |
Picked around him 2022 redraft
| 259 | Nazeeh Johnson | redraft #182 |
| 260 | Zander Horvath | redraft #243 |
| 261 | AJ Arcuri | redraft #229 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.