Michael Wilson
WR, Stanford · 2023 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #94 (ARI)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: availability. Details below.
The 2023 class is only 3 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Availability
Played 45 of ~51 possible regular-season games from 2023 through 2025 (~88%). Plus 7 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #126 (#17 at his position); he went #94, 32 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Stanford: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.58 40-yard dash at 213 lbs: faster than 12% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 52 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 3 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 18 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 2.8 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 20.8 |
| Passing | 1/1, 7 yds, undefined TD, undefined INT |
| Rushing | 1 att, 7 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 196 rec, 2,439 yds, 15 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2023 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2023 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 213 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.58 s |
| Bench press | 23 reps |
| Vertical | 37.5" |
| Broad jump | 125" |
| Shuttle | 4.27 s |
| Arm / hand | 31" / 9.75" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #126 overall (#17 WR) |
Picked around him 2023 redraft
| 91 | Dorian Williams | redraft #54 |
| 92 | Wanya Morris | redraft #105 |
| 93 | Darnell Washington | redraft #93 |
| 95 | Jordan Battle | redraft #58 |
| 96 | Brodric Martin | redraft #215 |
| 97 | Ricky Stromberg | redraft #240 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.