Dorian Williams
LB, Tulane · 2023 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #91 (BUF)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, position, availability. Details below.
The 2023 class is only 3 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
LB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 50 of ~51 possible regular-season games from 2023 through 2025 (~98%). Plus 6 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #139 (#8 at his position); he went #91, 48 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Tulane: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.49 40-yard dash at 228 lbs: faster than 93% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 56 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 2 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 13 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 1.9 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 14.9 |
| Defense | 143 tackles, 0 sacks, 1 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2023 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2023 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 228 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.49 s |
| Vertical | 33.5" |
| Broad jump | 120" |
| Arm / hand | 33.75" / 10.25" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #139 overall (#8 LB) |
Picked around him 2023 redraft
| 88 | Tank Bigsby | redraft #101 |
| 89 | Kobie Turner | redraft #22 |
| 90 | DeMarvion Overshown | redraft #102 |
| 92 | Wanya Morris | redraft #105 |
| 93 | Darnell Washington | redraft #93 |
| 94 | Michael Wilson | redraft #27 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.