Zay Flowers
WR, Boston Col. · 2023 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #22 (BAL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
The 2023 class is only 3 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 49 of ~51 possible regular-season games from 2023 through 2025 (~96%). Plus 6 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #22 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#22). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Boston Col.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.42 40-yard dash at 182 lbs: faster than 69% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 55 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 3 |
| Pro Bowls | 2 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 33 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 1.8 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 34.8 |
| Rushing | 30 att, 208 yds, 2 TD |
| Receiving | 269 rec, 3,599 yds, 16 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2023 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2023 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 9", 182 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.42 s |
| Vertical | 35.5" |
| Broad jump | 127" |
| Arm / hand | 29.25" / 9.25" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #22 overall (#2 WR) |
Picked around him 2023 redraft
| 19 | Calijah Kancey | redraft #52 |
| 20 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | redraft #7 |
| 21 | Quentin Johnston | redraft #39 |
| 23 | Jordan Addison | redraft #21 |
| 24 | Deonte Banks | redraft #61 |
| 25 | Dalton Kincaid | redraft #35 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.