Quentin Johnston
WR, TCU · 2023 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #21 (LAC)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
The 2023 class is only 3 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 46 of ~51 possible regular-season games from 2023 through 2025 (~90%). Plus 5 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #29 (#4 at his position), close to where he went (#21).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
TCU: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Combine
Invited to the Combine but no 40 time on record (skipped or injured).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (4,704 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 51 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 3 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 16 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 1.8 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 17.8 |
| Rushing | 10 att, 25 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 152 rec, 2,042 yds, 18 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2023 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2023 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Combine Invited to the Combine | 50.6% n=4,704 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 208 lbs |
| Vertical | 40.5" |
| Broad jump | 134" |
| Arm / hand | 33.63" / 9.63" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #29 overall (#4 WR) |
Picked around him 2023 redraft
| 18 | Jack Campbell | redraft #10 |
| 19 | Calijah Kancey | redraft #52 |
| 20 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | redraft #7 |
| 22 | Zay Flowers | redraft #6 |
| 23 | Jordan Addison | redraft #21 |
| 24 | Deonte Banks | redraft #61 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.