Jaxon Smith-Njigba
WR, Ohio St. · 2023 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #20 (SEA)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
The 2023 class is only 3 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 50 of ~51 possible regular-season games from 2023 through 2025 (~98%). Plus 7 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #17 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#20). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Ohio St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Combine
Invited to the Combine but no 40 time on record (skipped or injured).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (4,704 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 57 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 2 |
| Pro Bowls | 2 |
| First-team All-Pro | 1 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 30 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 2.6 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 32.6 |
| Passing | 2/2, 49 yds, undefined TD, undefined INT |
| Rushing | 13 att, 78 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 331 rec, 4,268 yds, 27 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2023 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2023 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Combine Invited to the Combine | 50.6% n=4,704 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 196 lbs |
| Vertical | 35" |
| Broad jump | 125" |
| 3-cone | 6.57 s |
| Shuttle | 3.93 s |
| Arm / hand | 30.5" / 9" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #17 overall (#1 WR) |
Picked around him 2023 redraft
| 17 | Christian Gonzalez | redraft #24 |
| 18 | Jack Campbell | redraft #10 |
| 19 | Calijah Kancey | redraft #52 |
| 21 | Quentin Johnston | redraft #39 |
| 22 | Zay Flowers | redraft #6 |
| 23 | Jordan Addison | redraft #21 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.