Christian Gonzalez
DB, Oregon · 2023 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #17 (NWE)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
The 2023 class is only 3 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #8 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#17).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Oregon: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.38 40-yard dash at 197 lbs: faster than 87% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 33 of ~51 possible regular-season games from 2023 through 2025 (~65%). Plus 5 games so far in 2026.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 38 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 2 |
| Pro Bowls | 1 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 19 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 2.2 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 21.2 |
| Defense | 130 tackles, 1 sacks, 3 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2023 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2023 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 197 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.38 s |
| Bench press | 14 reps |
| Vertical | 41.5" |
| Broad jump | 133" |
| Arm / hand | 32" / 9.5" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #8 overall (#2 DB) |
Picked around him 2023 redraft
| 14 | Broderick Jones | redraft #38 |
| 15 | Will McDonald | redraft #43 |
| 16 | Emmanuel Forbes | redraft #86 |
| 18 | Jack Campbell | redraft #10 |
| 19 | Calijah Kancey | redraft #52 |
| 20 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | redraft #7 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.