2027 NFL Mock Draft: Round 1 After Week 7
Our 2027 NFL mock draft, Round 1 off today's standings. Five quarterbacks go in the top seven, and Jeremiah Smith still sits alone at No. 1.
Seven weeks into the season, the bottom of the standings is starting to take shape, and that means it's time to run the 2027 board through the order. The live 2027 NFL mock draft now goes three rounds deep, but today we're zooming in on Round 1: who goes where, why the formula likes them, and which picks look like the biggest swings.
Two ground rules before we start. The draft order is estimated from current standings, with tiebreaks approximated by point differential. And the original team is shown on every pick, so traded picks are not reflected yet.
The top 10
| Pick | Team | Record | Player | Pos | School |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chargers | 0-6 | Jeremiah Smith | WR | Ohio State |
| 2 | Titans | 1-6 | Colin Simmons | EDGE | Texas |
| 3 | Dolphins | 1-5 | Drew Mestemaker | QB | Oklahoma State |
| 4 | Commanders | 1-4-1 | Darian Mensah | QB | Miami (FL) |
| 5 | Cardinals | 2-5 | Arch Manning | QB | Texas |
| 6 | Eagles | 2-5 | Dante Moore | QB | Oregon |
| 7 | Saints | 2-5 | C.J. Carr | QB | Notre Dame |
| 8 | Colts | 2-5 | Charlie Becker | WR | Indiana |
| 9 | Jets | 2-5 | Leonard Moore | CB | Notre Dame |
| 10 | Texans | 2-5 | Jordan Seaton | OT | LSU |
No. 1 isn't close
The winless Chargers get the easiest call on the board. Jeremiah Smith carries a 95.8 RR Score, and every one of his tracked numbers sits in the 100th percentile of his class: 7.4 catches a game, 140.6 receiving yards a game, 18.9 yards a catch and 12 touchdowns. He's the consensus No. 1 too. The one caveat is that he's a junior, so he has to declare early to be in this class.
Colin Simmons at No. 2 is the same story on defense. The Texas edge rusher has 10.5 sacks and 15.5 tackles for loss, both 100th percentile, and the Titans grab him even though our model docks them a bit for taking a front-seven player in Round 1 in 2025 or 2026.
The quarterback run
Here's where it gets wild. Five quarterbacks come off the board between picks 3 and 7, and four of those teams get flagged for the same reason: no first-round quarterback from 2024 through 2026.
Drew Mestemaker is the top passer on our board at No. 3 overall in RR Score (87.4), ahead of his No. 6 consensus rank. He's throwing for 332.3 yards a game, the best in his class, with 20 touchdowns and 9.7 yards per attempt. His 65.7% completion rate and 6 interceptions are the soft spots. He's a redshirt sophomore, and per the Oklahoma State roster he's three years out of high school, so he's eligible if he declares.
Darian Mensah might have the cleanest stat line in the class: 22 touchdown passes, 10.5 yards per attempt, an 81.4% completion rate and just 1 interception. The Commanders take him at No. 4 even though they spent a first on a quarterback recently, because he's simply the best player left.
Then it gets interesting. Arch Manning goes fifth to Arizona, and he's the No. 4 prospect on the consensus boards. Our formula is much cooler on his 2026 numbers, though: 215.3 passing yards a game and a 7.7 yards-per-attempt mark both grade near the bottom of his class, with 7 picks. The name and the tools are carrying that pick right now, and the production has to catch up.
Dante Moore lands with Philadelphia at No. 6 with an eye-catching quirk: zero interceptions (100th percentile) but only 9 touchdown passes. C.J. Carr rounds out the run at No. 7 to the Saints with 16 touchdowns against 1 interception.
Best value picks in Round 1
Our RR Score blends stats and age, and a few late first-rounders grade well above where the consensus has them:
- Princewill Umanmielen goes 32nd to the 6-0 Vikings. He's No. 70 on the consensus boards but No. 30 on ours, thanks to 8.5 sacks and 10.5 tackles for loss, both 96th percentile.
- Jadan Baugh is our only running back in Round 1, at No. 15 to the Rams. The Florida back is at 109.0 rushing yards a game, 5.7 yards a carry and 13 touchdowns, all 100th percentile.
- KJ Duff goes 29th to Buffalo with 110.6 receiving yards a game and 9 touchdowns for Rutgers.
- Xavier Gilliam of Tennessee goes 18th to Seattle with 6.0 sacks and 9.0 tackles for loss from the interior.
Where the model and the scouts disagree
The flip side: Leonard Moore is the consensus No. 3 prospect, but he's 10th on our board because a cornerback's box score is thin (5 passes defended, 0 interceptions). Dylan Stewart is the consensus No. 5 and slides to the Raiders at No. 12 after a quiet 2.0-sack start. Film people will tell you stats undersell both, and they may be right.
And keep an eye on Julian Sayin, who goes 30th to Kansas City. The Ohio State quarterback is 62nd on the consensus boards and 35th on ours, but his 10.5 yards per attempt and 19 touchdowns make him the formula's favorite late-round flier.
Broncos fans, here's your pick
At 5-2, Denver picks 26th and takes Ryan Coleman-Williams, the Alabama wideout averaging 18.0 yards a catch, 84th percentile in his class.
Want Rounds 2 and 3, every prospect's percentiles and the full big board? It all updates as the standings change.
See the full 2027 NFL mock draft →
Still tracking this year's class? The live 2026 NFL redraft re-ranks every rookie through Week 7.
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