T.J. Yates
QB, North Carolina · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #152 (HOU)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #209 (#11 at his position); he went #152, 57 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
North Carolina: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.06 40-yard dash at 219 lbs: faster than 6% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 22 of ~112 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2017 (~20%). Last NFL season: 2017.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 22 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 6 |
| Passing | 179/324, 2,057 yds, 10 TD, 11 INT |
| Rushing | 28 att, 107 yds, 1 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2017 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 219 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.06 s |
| Vertical | 29.5" |
| Broad jump | 104" |
| 3-cone | 6.96 s |
| Shuttle | 4.12 s |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #209 overall (#11 QB) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 149 | Dion Lewis | redraft #51 |
| 150 | Jason Pinkston | redraft #107 |
| 151 | Ahmad Black | redraft #168 |
| 153 | Jeremy Kerley | redraft #66 |
| 154 | Richard Sherman | redraft #9 |
| 155 | Niles Paul | redraft #124 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.