Richard Sherman
DB, Stanford · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #154 (SEA)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
No ESPN pre-draft ranking on file for him.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Stanford: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.54 40-yard dash at 195 lbs: faster than 27% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 144 of ~177 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2021 (~81%). Last NFL season: 2021.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 144 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 9 |
| Pro Bowls | 5 |
| First-team All-Pro | 3 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 97 |
| Defense | 385 tackles, 2 sacks, 37 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2021 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 195 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.54 s |
| Bench press | 16 reps |
| Vertical | 38" |
| Broad jump | 125" |
| 3-cone | 6.82 s |
| Shuttle | 4.33 s |
| Arm / hand | 32" / 9.6" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 151 | Ahmad Black | redraft #168 |
| 152 | T.J. Yates | redraft #126 |
| 153 | Jeremy Kerley | redraft #66 |
| 155 | Niles Paul | redraft #124 |
| 156 | Mark LeGree | redraft #232 |
| 157 | Doug Hogue | redraft #183 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.