Jeremy Kerley
WR, TCU · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #153 (NYJ)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #140 (#18 at his position), close to where he went (#153). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
TCU: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.56 40-yard dash at 189 lbs: faster than 16% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 99 of ~128 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2018 (~77%). Last NFL season: 2018.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 99 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 4 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 23 |
| Passing | 2/4, 83 yds, undefined TD, undefined INT |
| Rushing | 18 att, 133 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 270 rec, 3,116 yds, 13 TD |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2018 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 9", 189 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.56 s |
| Bench press | 16 reps |
| Vertical | 34.5" |
| Broad jump | 120" |
| Arm / hand | 30" / 9" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #140 overall (#18 WR) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 150 | Jason Pinkston | redraft #107 |
| 151 | Ahmad Black | redraft #168 |
| 152 | T.J. Yates | redraft #126 |
| 154 | Richard Sherman | redraft #9 |
| 155 | Niles Paul | redraft #124 |
| 156 | Mark LeGree | redraft #232 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.