Ahmad Black
DB, Florida · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #151 (TAM)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 24 of ~48 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2013 (~50%). Last NFL season: 2013.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #110 overall (#5 at his position), but he lasted until pick #151: teams let him slide 41 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Florida: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.70 40-yard dash at 184 lbs: faster than 1% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 24 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 3 |
| Defense | 41 tackles, 0 sacks, 2 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2013 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 9", 184 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.70 s |
| Bench press | 18 reps |
| Vertical | 35.5" |
| Broad jump | 119" |
| 3-cone | 6.85 s |
| Shuttle | 4.2 s |
| Arm / hand | 31" / 9.699" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #110 overall (#5 DB) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 148 | Denarius Moore | redraft #86 |
| 149 | Dion Lewis | redraft #51 |
| 150 | Jason Pinkston | redraft #107 |
| 152 | T.J. Yates | redraft #126 |
| 153 | Jeremy Kerley | redraft #66 |
| 154 | Richard Sherman | redraft #9 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.