Denarius Moore
WR, Tennessee · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #148 (OAK)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #211 (#26 at his position); he went #148, 63 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Tennessee: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.43 40-yard dash at 194 lbs: faster than 64% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 57 of ~80 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2015 (~71%). Last NFL season: 2015.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 57 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 3 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 15 |
| Rushing | 7 att, 57 yds, 1 TD |
| Receiving | 142 rec, 2,169 yds, 17 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2015 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 194 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.43 s |
| Bench press | 13 reps |
| Vertical | 36" |
| Broad jump | 118" |
| 3-cone | 6.78 s |
| Shuttle | 4.15 s |
| Arm / hand | 33" / 9.399" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #211 overall (#26 WR) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 145 | Jacquizz Rodgers | redraft #64 |
| 146 | DeJon Gomes | redraft #136 |
| 147 | Rod Issac | redraft #226 |
| 149 | Dion Lewis | redraft #51 |
| 150 | Jason Pinkston | redraft #107 |
| 151 | Ahmad Black | redraft #168 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.