Dion Lewis
RB, Pittsburgh · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #149 (PHI)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings, age. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #101 overall (#10 at his position), but he lasted until pick #149: teams let him slide 48 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
20 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Pittsburgh: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.56 40-yard dash at 193 lbs: faster than 41% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 102 of ~160 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2020 (~64%). Last NFL season: 2020.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 102 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 2 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 31 |
| Rushing | 567 att, 2,425 yds, 13 TD |
| Receiving | 191 rec, 1,408 yds, 8 TD |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2020 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 7", 193 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.56 s |
| Bench press | 17 reps |
| Vertical | 34.5" |
| Broad jump | 112" |
| 3-cone | 6.9 s |
| Shuttle | 4.18 s |
| Arm / hand | 28.1" / 8.6" |
| Age at draft | 20 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #101 overall (#10 RB) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 146 | DeJon Gomes | redraft #136 |
| 147 | Rod Issac | redraft #226 |
| 148 | Denarius Moore | redraft #86 |
| 150 | Jason Pinkston | redraft #107 |
| 151 | Ahmad Black | redraft #168 |
| 152 | T.J. Yates | redraft #126 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.