Niles Paul
WR, Nebraska · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #155 (WAS)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings, age. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #117 overall (#16 at his position), but he lasted until pick #155: teams let him slide 38 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Nebraska: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.45 40-yard dash at 224 lbs: faster than 57% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 88 of ~128 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2018 (~69%). Last NFL season: 2018.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 88 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 7 |
| Rushing | 5 att, 7 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 78 rec, 954 yds, 2 TD |
| Defense | 26 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2018 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 224 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.45 s |
| Bench press | 24 reps |
| Vertical | 34.5" |
| Broad jump | 117" |
| 3-cone | 6.9 s |
| Shuttle | 4.14 s |
| Arm / hand | 31" / 8.699" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #117 overall (#16 WR) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 152 | T.J. Yates | redraft #126 |
| 153 | Jeremy Kerley | redraft #66 |
| 154 | Richard Sherman | redraft #9 |
| 156 | Mark LeGree | redraft #232 |
| 157 | Doug Hogue | redraft #183 |
| 158 | Jermale Hines | redraft #213 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.