Jeff Smoker
QB, Michigan St. · 2004 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #201 (STL)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Never played a regular-season NFL game.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #196 (#11 at his position), close to where he went (#201).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Michigan St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.95 40-yard dash at 223 lbs: faster than 16% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 0 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 0 |
| Last NFL season | Never played |
The 2004 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2004 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 223 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.95 s |
| Vertical | 26.5" |
| Broad jump | 101" |
| 3-cone | 7.65 s |
| Shuttle | 4.36 s |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #196 overall (#11 QB) |
Picked around him 2004 redraft
| 198 | Keith Lewis | redraft #116 |
| 199 | Clarence Moore | redraft #169 |
| 200 | Charlie Anderson | redraft #112 |
| 202 | John Navarre | redraft #221 |
| 203 | Drew Strojny | redraft #243 |
| 204 | Ryon Bingham | redraft #133 |
More QB busts Steals & busts
| 2018 | Josh Rosen #10 → #194 | -165 |
| 2016 | Christian Hackenberg #51 → #237 | -158 |
| 2016 | Paxton Lynch #26 → #191 | -137 |
| 2021 | Kyle Trask #64 → #222 | -137 |
| 2008 | Brian Brohm #56 → #214 | -133 |
Picks at his position who fell furthest below their slot, 2000–2023 classes, current redraft rank.
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.