Kyle Trask
QB, Florida · 2021 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #64 (TAM)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 7 of ~68 possible regular-season games from 2021 through 2024 (~10%). Last NFL season: 2024.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #65 (#7 at his position), close to where he went (#64).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Florida: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.10 40-yard dash at 236 lbs: faster than 5% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 7 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 0 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 0.0 |
| Passing | 4/11, 28 yds, undefined TD, undefined INT |
| Rushing | 6 att, -5 yds, undefined TD |
| Last NFL season | 2024 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2021 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2021 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 236 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.10 s |
| Vertical | 31.5" |
| Broad jump | 113" |
| 3-cone | 7.08 s |
| Shuttle | 4.6 s |
| Arm / hand | 33" / 10.13" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #65 overall (#7 QB) |
Picked around him 2021 redraft
| 61 | Boogie Basham | redraft #159 |
| 62 | Josh Myers | redraft #18 |
| 63 | Creed Humphrey | redraft #6 |
| 65 | Andre Cisco | redraft #60 |
| 66 | Kellen Mond | redraft #245 |
| 67 | Davis Mills | redraft #76 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.