Davis Mills
QB, Stanford · 2021 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #67 (HOU)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #63 (#6 at his position), close to where he went (#67).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Stanford: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.82 40-yard dash at 217 lbs: faster than 46% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 44 of ~85 possible regular-season games from 2021 through 2025 (~52%).
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 44 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 2 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 17 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 17.0 |
| Passing | 684/1107, 7,082 yds, 40 TD, 26 INT |
| Rushing | 68 att, 232 yds, 3 TD |
| Defense | 2 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2025 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2021 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2021 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 217 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.82 s |
| Vertical | 32" |
| Broad jump | 110" |
| 3-cone | 6.95 s |
| Shuttle | 4.4 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.38" / 9.5" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #63 overall (#6 QB) |
Picked around him 2021 redraft
| 64 | Kyle Trask | redraft #222 |
| 65 | Andre Cisco | redraft #60 |
| 66 | Kellen Mond | redraft #245 |
| 68 | Jalen Mayfield | redraft #130 |
| 69 | Joseph Ossai | redraft #107 |
| 70 | Brady Christensen | redraft #88 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.