Melvin Ely
PF, Fresno State · 2002 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #12 (LAC)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 375 games over 9 NBA seasons (~51% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #7 (#20 at his position), close to where he went (#12).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
24.2 years old on draft night (born 1978-05-02).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.6% of the time (138 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Fresno State.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 9 |
| Games | 375 |
| Minutes / game | 16.0 |
| Points / game | 5.3 |
| Rebounds / game | 3.2 |
| Assists / game | 0.7 |
| Win Shares (career) | 4.0 |
| VORP | -3.1 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -4.0 |
The 2002 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2002 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age 23 or older | 48.6% n=138 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 10", 256 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 24.2 |
| Born | Harvey, IL |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #7 overall (#20 PF) |
Picked around him 2002 redraft
| 9 | Amar'e Stoudemire | redraft #1 |
| 10 | Caron Butler | redraft #7 |
| 11 | Jared Jeffries | redraft #19 |
| 13 | Marcus Haislip | redraft #37 |
| 14 | Fred Jones | redraft #14 |
| 15 | Boštjan Nachbar | redraft #20 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.