Fred Jones
SG, Oregon · 2002 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #14 (IND)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #4 overall (#1105 at his position), but he lasted until pick #14: teams let him slide 10 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 68.6% of the time (194 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23.3 years old on draft night (born 1979-03-11).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.6% of the time (138 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Oregon.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SG (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (499 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 430 games over 7 NBA seasons (~75% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 7 |
| Games | 430 |
| Minutes / game | 24.0 |
| Points / game | 7.5 |
| Rebounds / game | 2.2 |
| Assists / game | 2.3 |
| Win Shares (career) | 16.5 |
| VORP | 2.6 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -1.0 |
The 2002 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2002 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 10+ picks past ESPN's rank | 68.6% n=194 | |
| Age 23 or older | 48.6% n=138 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Guard | 48.9% n=499 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 209 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 23.3 |
| Born | Gresham, OR |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #4 overall (#1105 SG) |
Picked around him 2002 redraft
| 11 | Jared Jeffries | redraft #19 |
| 12 | Melvin Ely | redraft #26 |
| 13 | Marcus Haislip | redraft #37 |
| 15 | Boštjan Nachbar | redraft #20 |
| 16 | Jiří Welsch | redraft #25 |
| 17 | Juan Dixon | redraft #24 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.