Amar'e Stoudemire
PF · 2002 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #9 (PHO)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #3 (#16 at his position), close to where he went (#9). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
19.6 years old on draft night (born 1982-11-16).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.7% of the time (300 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
No college; born in Lake Wales, FL.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 55.6% of the time (9 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 846 games over 14 NBA seasons (~74% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 14 |
| Games | 846 |
| Minutes / game | 31.0 |
| Points / game | 18.9 |
| Rebounds / game | 7.8 |
| Assists / game | 1.2 |
| Win Shares (career) | 92.5 |
| VORP | 21.9 |
| Box Plus/Minus | 1.3 |
The 2002 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2002 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age Under 20 | 51.7% n=300 | |
| Path to the draft No college (HS / G League / other) | 55.6% n=9 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 9", 245 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 19.6 |
| Born | Lake Wales, FL |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #3 overall (#16 PF) |
Picked around him 2002 redraft
| 6 | Dajuan Wagner | redraft #44 |
| 7 | Nenê | redraft #4 |
| 8 | Chris Wilcox | redraft #12 |
| 10 | Caron Butler | redraft #7 |
| 11 | Jared Jeffries | redraft #19 |
| 12 | Melvin Ely | redraft #26 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.