Caron Butler
SF, UConn · 2002 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #10 (MIA)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #4 (#13 at his position), close to where he went (#10).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22.3 years old on draft night (born 1980-03-13).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.9% of the time (339 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at UConn.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 881 games over 14 NBA seasons (~77% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 14 |
| Games | 881 |
| Minutes / game | 32.2 |
| Points / game | 14.1 |
| Rebounds / game | 5.0 |
| Assists / game | 2.3 |
| Win Shares (career) | 50.9 |
| VORP | 12.6 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -0.2 |
The 2002 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2002 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age 22 | 51.9% n=339 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 7", 235 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 22.3 |
| Born | Racine, WI |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #4 overall (#13 SF) |
Picked around him 2002 redraft
| 7 | Nenê | redraft #4 |
| 8 | Chris Wilcox | redraft #12 |
| 9 | Amar'e Stoudemire | redraft #1 |
| 11 | Jared Jeffries | redraft #19 |
| 12 | Melvin Ely | redraft #26 |
| 13 | Marcus Haislip | redraft #37 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.