Tyron Smith
T, USC · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #9 (DAL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, position. Details below.
- Age
20 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
T (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #10 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#9).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
USC: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.93 40-yard dash at 307 lbs: faster than 95% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 171 of ~228 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2024 (~75%). Last NFL season: 2024.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 171 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 12 |
| Pro Bowls | 8 |
| First-team All-Pro | 2 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 91 |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2024 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 307 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.93 s |
| Bench press | 29 reps |
| Arm / hand | 36.29" / 11" |
| Age at draft | 20 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #10 overall (#1 T) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 6 | Julio Jones | redraft #8 |
| 7 | Aldon Smith | redraft #47 |
| 8 | Jake Locker | redraft #87 |
| 10 | Blaine Gabbert | redraft #83 |
| 11 | J.J. Watt | redraft #3 |
| 12 | Christian Ponder | redraft #70 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.