Blaine Gabbert
QB, Missouri · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #10 (JAX)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 69 of ~211 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2023 (~33%). Last NFL season: 2023.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #5 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#10).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Missouri: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.61 40-yard dash at 234 lbs: faster than 83% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 69 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 2 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 17 |
| Passing | 882/1568, 9,487 yds, 51 TD, 50 INT |
| Rushing | 201 att, 685 yds, 3 TD |
| Receiving | 1 rec, -16 yds, undefined TD |
| Last NFL season | 2023 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 234 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.61 s |
| Vertical | 33.5" |
| Broad jump | 120" |
| 3-cone | 6.84 s |
| Shuttle | 4.26 s |
| Arm / hand | 33" / 10" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #5 overall (#1 QB) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 7 | Aldon Smith | redraft #47 |
| 8 | Jake Locker | redraft #87 |
| 9 | Tyron Smith | redraft #11 |
| 11 | J.J. Watt | redraft #3 |
| 12 | Christian Ponder | redraft #70 |
| 13 | Nick Fairley | redraft #67 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.