Christian Ponder
QB, Florida St. · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #12 (MIN)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, position, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #45 (#5 at his position); he went #12, 33 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 38 of ~64 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2014 (~59%). Last NFL season: 2014.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Florida St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.63 40-yard dash at 229 lbs: faster than 81% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 38 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 3 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 22 |
| Passing | 632/1057, 6,658 yds, 38 TD, 36 INT |
| Rushing | 126 att, 639 yds, 7 TD |
| Receiving | 1 rec, -15 yds, undefined TD |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2014 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 229 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.63 s |
| Vertical | 34" |
| Broad jump | 116" |
| 3-cone | 6.85 s |
| Shuttle | 4.09 s |
| Arm / hand | 32.09" / 10.2" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #45 overall (#5 QB) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 9 | Tyron Smith | redraft #11 |
| 10 | Blaine Gabbert | redraft #83 |
| 11 | J.J. Watt | redraft #3 |
| 13 | Nick Fairley | redraft #67 |
| 14 | Robert Quinn | redraft #15 |
| 15 | Mike Pouncey | redraft #27 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.