J.J. Watt
DE, Wisconsin · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #11 (HOU)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #16 (#4 at his position), close to where he went (#11).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Wisconsin: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.81 40-yard dash at 290 lbs: faster than 67% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DE (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 151 of ~194 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2022 (~78%). Last NFL season: 2022.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 151 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 10 |
| Pro Bowls | 5 |
| First-team All-Pro | 5 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 110 |
| Receiving | 3 rec, 4 yds, 3 TD |
| Defense | 449 tackles, 114.5 sacks, 2 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2022 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 290 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.81 s |
| Bench press | 34 reps |
| Vertical | 37" |
| Broad jump | 120" |
| 3-cone | 6.88 s |
| Shuttle | 4.21 s |
| Arm / hand | 34" / 11.1" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #16 overall (#4 DE) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 8 | Jake Locker | redraft #87 |
| 9 | Tyron Smith | redraft #11 |
| 10 | Blaine Gabbert | redraft #83 |
| 12 | Christian Ponder | redraft #70 |
| 13 | Nick Fairley | redraft #67 |
| 14 | Robert Quinn | redraft #15 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.