Julio Jones
WR, Alabama · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #6 (ATL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #7 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#6).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Alabama: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.34 40-yard dash at 220 lbs: faster than 91% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 166 of ~211 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2023 (~79%). Last NFL season: 2023.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 166 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 9 |
| Pro Bowls | 7 |
| First-team All-Pro | 2 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 101 |
| Rushing | 24 att, 163 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 914 rec, 13,703 yds, 66 TD |
| Defense | 2 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2023 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 220 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.34 s |
| Bench press | 17 reps |
| Vertical | 38.5" |
| Broad jump | 135" |
| 3-cone | 6.66 s |
| Shuttle | 4.25 s |
| Arm / hand | 33.59" / 9.6" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #7 overall (#2 WR) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 3 | Marcell Dareus | redraft #26 |
| 4 | A.J. Green | redraft #12 |
| 5 | Patrick Peterson | redraft #6 |
| 7 | Aldon Smith | redraft #47 |
| 8 | Jake Locker | redraft #87 |
| 9 | Tyron Smith | redraft #11 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.