A.J. Green
WR, Georgia · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #4 (CIN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #3 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#4).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Georgia: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.48 40-yard dash at 211 lbs: faster than 44% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 158 of ~194 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2022 (~81%). Last NFL season: 2022.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 158 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 10 |
| Pro Bowls | 7 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 77 |
| Rushing | 11 att, 93 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 727 rec, 10,514 yds, 70 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2022 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 211 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.48 s |
| Bench press | 18 reps |
| Vertical | 34.5" |
| Broad jump | 126" |
| 3-cone | 6.91 s |
| Shuttle | 4.21 s |
| Arm / hand | 34.29" / 9.199" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #3 overall (#1 WR) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 1 | Cam Newton | redraft #2 |
| 2 | Von Miller | redraft #5 |
| 3 | Marcell Dareus | redraft #26 |
| 5 | Patrick Peterson | redraft #6 |
| 6 | Julio Jones | redraft #8 |
| 7 | Aldon Smith | redraft #47 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.