Cam Newton
QB, Auburn · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #1 (CAR)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #15 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#1).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Auburn: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.56 40-yard dash at 248 lbs: faster than 91% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 148 of ~177 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2021 (~84%). Last NFL season: 2021.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 148 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 9 |
| Pro Bowls | 3 |
| First-team All-Pro | 1 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 115 |
| Passing | 2682/4474, 32,382 yds, 194 TD, 123 INT |
| Rushing | 1118 att, 5,628 yds, 75 TD |
| Receiving | 3 rec, 68 yds, 1 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2021 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 248 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.56 s |
| Vertical | 35" |
| Broad jump | 126" |
| 3-cone | 6.92 s |
| Shuttle | 4.18 s |
| Arm / hand | 33.59" / 9.699" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #15 overall (#2 QB) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 2 | Von Miller | redraft #5 |
| 3 | Marcell Dareus | redraft #26 |
| 4 | A.J. Green | redraft #12 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.