Patrick Peterson
DB, LSU · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #5 (ARI)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 201 of ~211 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2023 (~95%). Last NFL season: 2023.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #4 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#5).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
LSU: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.31 40-yard dash at 219 lbs: faster than 98% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 201 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 13 |
| Pro Bowls | 8 |
| First-team All-Pro | 3 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 103 |
| Passing | 1/1, 17 yds, undefined TD, undefined INT |
| Rushing | 7 att, 34 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 10 rec, 64 yds, undefined TD |
| Defense | 571 tackles, 4 sacks, 36 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2023 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 219 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.31 s |
| Bench press | 15 reps |
| Vertical | 38" |
| Broad jump | 126" |
| 3-cone | 6.58 s |
| Shuttle | 4.07 s |
| Arm / hand | 32" / 9.199" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #4 overall (#1 DB) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 2 | Von Miller | redraft #5 |
| 3 | Marcell Dareus | redraft #26 |
| 4 | A.J. Green | redraft #12 |
| 6 | Julio Jones | redraft #8 |
| 7 | Aldon Smith | redraft #47 |
| 8 | Jake Locker | redraft #87 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.