Royce Freeman
RB, Oregon · 2018 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #71 (DEN)
Why he went too high Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a risk: his profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #90 (#8 at his position), close to where he went (#71).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Oregon: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.54 40-yard dash at 229 lbs: faster than 48% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 79 of ~99 possible regular-season games from 2018 through 2023 (~80%). Last NFL season: 2023.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 79 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 13 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 13.0 |
| Rushing | 471 att, 1,792 yds, 10 TD |
| Receiving | 86 rec, 532 yds, 1 TD |
| Defense | 5 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2023 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2018 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2018 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 11", 229 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.54 s |
| Bench press | 17 reps |
| Vertical | 34" |
| Broad jump | 118" |
| 3-cone | 6.9 s |
| Shuttle | 4.16 s |
| Arm / hand | 32" / 9.5" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #90 overall (#8 RB) |
Picked around him 2018 redraft
| 68 | Justin Reid | redraft #49 |
| 69 | B.J. Hill | redraft #47 |
| 70 | Fred Warner | redraft #4 |
| 72 | Nathan Shepherd | redraft #73 |
| 73 | Jerome Baker | redraft #41 |
| 74 | Geron Christian | redraft #129 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.