Fred Warner
OLB, BYU · 2018 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #70 (SFO)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, position, availability. Details below.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
OLB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 120 of ~133 possible regular-season games from 2018 through 2025 (~90%). Plus 7 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #98 (#4 at his position), close to where he went (#70). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
BYU: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.64 40-yard dash at 236 lbs: faster than 57% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 127 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 7 |
| Pro Bowls | 4 |
| First-team All-Pro | 4 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 82 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 3.1 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 85.1 |
| Defense | 624 tackles, 10.5 sacks, 10 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2018 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2018 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 236 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.64 s |
| Bench press | 21 reps |
| Vertical | 38.5" |
| Broad jump | 119" |
| 3-cone | 6.9 s |
| Shuttle | 4.28 s |
| Arm / hand | 32" / 9.75" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #98 overall (#4 OLB) |
Picked around him 2018 redraft
| 67 | Chad Thomas | redraft #176 |
| 68 | Justin Reid | redraft #49 |
| 69 | B.J. Hill | redraft #47 |
| 71 | Royce Freeman | redraft #122 |
| 72 | Nathan Shepherd | redraft #73 |
| 73 | Jerome Baker | redraft #41 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.