Chad Thomas
DE, Miami (FL) · 2018 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #67 (CLE)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #162 (#14 at his position); he went #67, 95 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Miami (FL): a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.92 40-yard dash at 281 lbs: faster than 47% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DE (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 20 of ~32 possible regular-season games from 2018 through 2019 (~63%). Last NFL season: 2019.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 20 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 5 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 5.0 |
| Defense | 17 tackles, 4 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2019 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2018 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2018 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 6", 281 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.92 s |
| Vertical | 29" |
| Broad jump | 116" |
| Arm / hand | 33.5" / 10.25" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #162 overall (#14 DE) |
Picked around him 2018 redraft
| 64 | Tyquan Lewis | redraft #119 |
| 65 | Brandon Parker | redraft #113 |
| 66 | Lorenzo Carter | redraft #64 |
| 68 | Justin Reid | redraft #49 |
| 69 | B.J. Hill | redraft #47 |
| 70 | Fred Warner | redraft #4 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.