Nathan Shepherd
DT, Fort Hays St. · 2018 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #72 (NYJ)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 122 of ~133 possible regular-season games from 2018 through 2025 (~92%). Plus 4 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #59 (#6 at his position), close to where he went (#72).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Fort Hays St.: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.09 40-yard dash at 315 lbs: faster than 20% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DT (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 126 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 2 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 25 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 1.2 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 26.2 |
| Defense | 121 tackles, 14.5 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2018 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2018 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 315 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.09 s |
| Vertical | 31" |
| Broad jump | 112" |
| 3-cone | 7.5 s |
| Shuttle | 4.53 s |
| Arm / hand | 32.38" / 10.13" |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #59 overall (#6 DT) |
Picked around him 2018 redraft
| 69 | B.J. Hill | redraft #47 |
| 70 | Fred Warner | redraft #4 |
| 71 | Royce Freeman | redraft #122 |
| 73 | Jerome Baker | redraft #41 |
| 74 | Geron Christian | redraft #129 |
| 75 | Derrick Nnadi | redraft #45 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.