Geron Christian
T, Louisville · 2018 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #74 (WAS)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 63 of ~116 possible regular-season games from 2018 through 2024 (~54%). Last NFL season: 2024.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #64 (#4 at his position), close to where he went (#74).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Louisville: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.33 40-yard dash at 298 lbs: faster than 21% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
T (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 63 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 12 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 12.0 |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2024 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2018 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2018 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 298 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.33 s |
| Bench press | 19 reps |
| Arm / hand | 35.25" / 10.75" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #64 overall (#4 T) |
Picked around him 2018 redraft
| 71 | Royce Freeman | redraft #122 |
| 72 | Nathan Shepherd | redraft #73 |
| 73 | Jerome Baker | redraft #41 |
| 75 | Derrick Nnadi | redraft #45 |
| 76 | Mason Rudolph | redraft #144 |
| 77 | Sam Hubbard | redraft #37 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.