Jerome Baker
OLB, Ohio St. · 2018 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #73 (MIA)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, position, availability. Details below.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
OLB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 121 of ~133 possible regular-season games from 2018 through 2025 (~91%).
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #68 (#7 at his position), close to where he went (#73). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Ohio St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.53 40-yard dash at 229 lbs: faster than 86% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 121 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 6 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 39 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 39.0 |
| Defense | 427 tackles, 26 sacks, 5 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2025 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2018 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2018 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 229 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.53 s |
| Bench press | 22 reps |
| Vertical | 36.5" |
| Broad jump | 126" |
| Arm / hand | 31.5" / 10.38" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #68 overall (#7 OLB) |
Picked around him 2018 redraft
| 70 | Fred Warner | redraft #4 |
| 71 | Royce Freeman | redraft #122 |
| 72 | Nathan Shepherd | redraft #73 |
| 74 | Geron Christian | redraft #129 |
| 75 | Derrick Nnadi | redraft #45 |
| 76 | Mason Rudolph | redraft #144 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.