Ras-I Dowling
DB, Virginia · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #33 (NWE)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 12 of ~64 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2014 (~19%). Last NFL season: 2014.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #39 (#5 at his position), close to where he went (#33).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Virginia: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.40 40-yard dash at 198 lbs: faster than 82% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 12 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 1 |
| Defense | 8 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2014 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 198 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.40 s |
| Bench press | 19 reps |
| Arm / hand | 31" / 9.399" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #39 overall (#5 DB) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 30 | Muhammad Wilkerson | redraft #25 |
| 31 | Cameron Heyward | redraft #1 |
| 32 | Derek Sherrod | redraft #171 |
| 34 | Aaron Williams | redraft #79 |
| 35 | Andy Dalton | redraft #10 |
| 36 | Colin Kaepernick | redraft #32 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.