Andy Dalton
QB, TCU · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #35 (CIN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #40 (#4 at his position), close to where he went (#35). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
TCU: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.83 40-yard dash at 215 lbs: faster than 44% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 180 of ~245 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2025 (career total from PFR, which may already include some 2026 games) (~73%).
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 180 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 11 |
| Pro Bowls | 3 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 92 |
| Passing | 3539/5652, 39,793 yds, 254 TD, 152 INT |
| Rushing | 487 att, 1,509 yds, 22 TD |
| Receiving | 3 rec, 11 yds, 1 TD |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 215 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.83 s |
| Vertical | 29.5" |
| Broad jump | 106" |
| 3-cone | 6.93 s |
| Shuttle | 4.27 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.6" / 9.399" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #40 overall (#4 QB) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 32 | Derek Sherrod | redraft #171 |
| 33 | Ras-I Dowling | redraft #195 |
| 34 | Aaron Williams | redraft #79 |
| 36 | Colin Kaepernick | redraft #32 |
| 37 | Jabaal Sheard | redraft #30 |
| 38 | Ryan Williams | redraft #200 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.