Ryan Williams
RB, Virginia Tech · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #38 (ARI)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 5 of ~32 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2012 (~16%). Last NFL season: 2012.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #33 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#38).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Virginia Tech: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.59 40-yard dash at 212 lbs: faster than 31% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 5 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 1 |
| Rushing | 58 att, 164 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 7 rec, 44 yds, undefined TD |
| Last NFL season | 2012 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 9", 212 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.59 s |
| Bench press | 19 reps |
| Vertical | 40" |
| Broad jump | 123" |
| 3-cone | 6.96 s |
| Shuttle | 4.18 s |
| Arm / hand | 30.6" / 9" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #33 overall (#2 RB) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 35 | Andy Dalton | redraft #10 |
| 36 | Colin Kaepernick | redraft #32 |
| 37 | Jabaal Sheard | redraft #30 |
| 39 | Akeem Ayers | redraft #57 |
| 40 | Bruce Carter | redraft #75 |
| 41 | Jarvis Jenkins | redraft #69 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.