Colin Kaepernick
QB, Nevada · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #36 (SFO)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #57 (#7 at his position), close to where he went (#36).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Nevada: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.53 40-yard dash at 233 lbs: faster than 94% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 69 of ~96 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2016 (~72%). Last NFL season: 2016.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 69 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 4 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 45 |
| Passing | 1011/1692, 12,271 yds, 72 TD, 30 INT |
| Rushing | 375 att, 2,300 yds, 13 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2016 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 233 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.53 s |
| Vertical | 32.5" |
| Broad jump | 115" |
| 3-cone | 6.85 s |
| Shuttle | 4.18 s |
| Arm / hand | 33.4" / 9.1" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #57 overall (#7 QB) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 33 | Ras-I Dowling | redraft #195 |
| 34 | Aaron Williams | redraft #79 |
| 35 | Andy Dalton | redraft #10 |
| 37 | Jabaal Sheard | redraft #30 |
| 38 | Ryan Williams | redraft #200 |
| 39 | Akeem Ayers | redraft #57 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.