Aaron Williams
DB, Texas · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #34 (BUF)
Why he went too high Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a risk: his profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #32 (#4 at his position), close to where he went (#34).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Texas: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.55 40-yard dash at 204 lbs: faster than 24% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 59 of ~96 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2016 (~61%). Last NFL season: 2016.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 59 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 4 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 17 |
| Defense | 184 tackles, 0 sacks, 7 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2016 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 204 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.55 s |
| Bench press | 18 reps |
| Vertical | 37.5" |
| Broad jump | 127" |
| 3-cone | 6.72 s |
| Shuttle | 4.07 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.4" / 9.199" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #32 overall (#4 DB) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 31 | Cameron Heyward | redraft #1 |
| 32 | Derek Sherrod | redraft #171 |
| 33 | Ras-I Dowling | redraft #195 |
| 35 | Andy Dalton | redraft #10 |
| 36 | Colin Kaepernick | redraft #32 |
| 37 | Jabaal Sheard | redraft #30 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.