Muhammad Wilkerson
DT, Temple · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #30 (NYJ)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #24 (#7 at his position), close to where he went (#30).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Temple: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.96 40-yard dash at 315 lbs: faster than 41% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DT (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 108 of ~128 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2018 (~84%). Last NFL season: 2018.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 108 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 7 |
| Pro Bowls | 1 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 58 |
| Defense | 245 tackles, 44.5 sacks, 2 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2018 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 315 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.96 s |
| Bench press | 27 reps |
| Vertical | 26" |
| Broad jump | 106" |
| 3-cone | 7.31 s |
| Shuttle | 4.59 s |
| Arm / hand | 35.2" / 10" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #24 overall (#7 DT) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 27 | Jimmy Smith | redraft #48 |
| 28 | Mark Ingram | redraft #16 |
| 29 | Gabe Carimi | redraft #98 |
| 31 | Cameron Heyward | redraft #1 |
| 32 | Derek Sherrod | redraft #171 |
| 33 | Ras-I Dowling | redraft #195 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.