Marion Barber III
RB, Minnesota · 2005 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #109 (DAL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 99 of ~112 possible regular-season games from 2005 through 2011 (~88%). Last NFL season: 2011.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #97 (#10 at his position), close to where he went (#109). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Minnesota: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.49 40-yard dash at 221 lbs: faster than 62% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 99 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 3 |
| Pro Bowls | 1 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 39 |
| Passing | undefined/1, 0 yds, undefined TD, undefined INT |
| Rushing | 1156 att, 4,780 yds, 53 TD |
| Receiving | 179 rec, 1,330 yds, 6 TD |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2011 |
The 2005 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2005 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 11", 221 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.49 s |
| Bench press | 20 reps |
| Vertical | 40" |
| Broad jump | 127" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #97 overall (#10 RB) |
Picked around him 2005 redraft
| 106 | Kyle Orton | redraft #40 |
| 107 | Dan Buenning | redraft #118 |
| 108 | Vincent Fuller | redraft #124 |
| 110 | Brandon Jacobs | redraft #48 |
| 111 | Elton Brown | redraft #128 |
| 112 | Ciatrick Fason | redraft #175 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.