Kyle Orton
QB, Purdue · 2005 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #106 (CHI)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings, age. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #69 overall (#6 at his position), but he lasted until pick #106: teams let him slide 37 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Purdue: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.06 40-yard dash at 233 lbs: faster than 6% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 87 of ~160 possible regular-season games from 2005 through 2014 (~54%). Last NFL season: 2014.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 87 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 5 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 40 |
| Passing | 1613/2712, 18,037 yds, 101 TD, 69 INT |
| Rushing | 126 att, 296 yds, 4 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2014 |
The 2005 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2005 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 233 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.06 s |
| Vertical | 26.5" |
| 3-cone | 7.38 s |
| Shuttle | 4.52 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #69 overall (#6 QB) |
Picked around him 2005 redraft
| 103 | Antonio Perkins | redraft #205 |
| 104 | Travis Daniels | redraft #104 |
| 105 | Ray Willis | redraft #116 |
| 107 | Dan Buenning | redraft #118 |
| 108 | Vincent Fuller | redraft #124 |
| 109 | Marion Barber III | redraft #42 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.