Dan Buenning
G, Wisconsin · 2005 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #107 (TAM)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: position. Details below.
- Position
G (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #150 (#8 at his position); he went #107, 43 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Wisconsin: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.35 40-yard dash at 320 lbs: faster than 18% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 36 of ~64 possible regular-season games from 2005 through 2008 (~56%). Last NFL season: 2008.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 36 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 10 |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2008 |
The 2005 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2005 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 320 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.35 s |
| Bench press | 29 reps |
| Vertical | 28" |
| Broad jump | 111" |
| 3-cone | 7.9 s |
| Shuttle | 4.59 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #150 overall (#8 G) |
Picked around him 2005 redraft
| 104 | Travis Daniels | redraft #104 |
| 105 | Ray Willis | redraft #116 |
| 106 | Kyle Orton | redraft #40 |
| 108 | Vincent Fuller | redraft #124 |
| 109 | Marion Barber III | redraft #42 |
| 110 | Brandon Jacobs | redraft #48 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.