Brandon Jacobs
RB, Southern Illinois · 2005 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #110 (NYG)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #199 (#19 at his position); he went #110, 89 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Southern Illinois: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.56 40-yard dash at 267 lbs: faster than 41% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 109 of ~144 possible regular-season games from 2005 through 2013 (~76%). Last NFL season: 2013.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 109 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 3 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 36 |
| Rushing | 1141 att, 5,094 yds, 60 TD |
| Receiving | 82 rec, 743 yds, 4 TD |
| Defense | 11 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2013 |
The 2005 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2005 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 267 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.56 s |
| Bench press | 19 reps |
| Vertical | 37" |
| Broad jump | 118" |
| 3-cone | 7.53 s |
| Shuttle | 4.46 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #199 overall (#19 RB) |
Picked around him 2005 redraft
| 107 | Dan Buenning | redraft #118 |
| 108 | Vincent Fuller | redraft #124 |
| 109 | Marion Barber III | redraft #42 |
| 111 | Elton Brown | redraft #128 |
| 112 | Ciatrick Fason | redraft #175 |
| 113 | David Stewart | redraft #26 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.